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The Republican two man race, Ron Paul and whoever emerges to challenge him Larry Fester / USA Daily | October 30, 2007 Analysis-Fred Barnes of Fox News and the Weekly Standard offered that the GOP nomination is a race between Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney as the only two candidates with a credible chance at winning the Republican nomination. Barnes offers the view that national polls don’t matter, the early primaries do, and money is extremely important. Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul is attracting crowds in Iowa, and just about wherever he goes. Over the past weekend Paul was greeted by 700 supporters at Iowa State University and another 300 in Des Moines. Whether in Rudy Giuliani’s Back Yard in New York City, the Streets of San Francisco, or Salt Lake City Utah, or basically anywhere he goes he’s attracting crowds. Ron Paul regularly attracts large crowds sometimes of a thousand or more and he’s doing it across the country not just in Iowa or New Hampshire. LewRockwell.com, a Libertarian/Conservative site, recently noted that Paul even attracted a crowd in the hundreds in Wyoming, which is not exactly a highly populated state.
Ron Paul’s campaign in this election may have already proven media generated polls wrong or at best that they are an obsolete lagging indicator. Paul had been sitting at 1 percent for months in polls and recently jumped to 7.4% in New Hampshire. Even the Washington Post said traffic goes up when they do a story about Ron Paul. This is a significant statement coming from a news site as large as the Washington Post. (USA Daily can also attest to increased traffic on Ron Paul stories, although we’ve been covering Paul’s campaign regularly since July when it became obvious that he had strong support in the GOP despite being ignored by mass media) Ron Paul raised over 5 million last quarter and raised about 2.5 million in October. Paul was the only Republican to have risen more in the third quarter than in the previous one and will raise more in the fourth quarter than it did in the third quarter. If Paul’s campaign continues its current trend and the other frontrunners continue theirs, Paul may have more cash to do battle than the other candidates do by the end of the year. Romney has a nice support in Iowa and New Hampshire but risks two early black eyes. His expectations are so high that if Huckabee takes a close second or even wins in Iowa it will do quite a bit of damage. He runs an even greater risk of a second black eye in New Hampshire from Ron Paul. If Paul wins New Hampshire and core Republican voters realize he can win the nomination then his support including fund raising will likely sky rocket. Then there’s South Carolina where Romney, Giuliani, and possibly Thompson will still be competing for votes against Ron Paul. This is followed in a few days by Super Tuesday on February 5th where 22 states are up for grabs. This day may decide the nomination. However, it is possible that the delegates from Super Tuesday will be broken up between three candidates. If that occurs we may have to wait for Texas to see who the GOP nominee is. Ron Paul is of course the Texas Congressman that was one of only four to have endorsed Ronald Reagan in 1976. Barnes does say that Ron Paul may do better as a Libertarian candidate but just won’t win the presidency. Barnes may be indulging in wishful thinking. Paul has already ruled out a third party run. After watching Buchanan get lured into running as a third party candidate in 2000 only to be censored by the media, it is highly unlikely that Paul will follow suit. Ron Paul must know that once he starts winning Republican primaries it is impossible for media conglomerates to censor him. The fact is that Ron Paul at this point in time has as good of a shot at winning the nomination as Giuliani, Romney or Thompson does. That’s why we call it an election. To be totally honest it is a bit premature to call this election a two man race. Anything can happen to lift a candidate not mentioned here to the center stage or derail a candidate as well, but for pundits to be placing more emphasis on polls than fund raising and the crowds that a candidate attracts just doesn't make sense. (Visit the USA Daily Forum to discuss this and other issues.) CLICK ON THE BANNER TO
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